Indonesian stocks fell about 7 percent this week and US technology shares suffered their worst month since March 2025, as doubts over the returns on artificial-intelligence spending collided with persistent foreign selling in Jakarta and uncertainty over Indonesia’s standing in global indexes.

The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed Friday at 5,057.05, down 0.80 percent on the day and about 7 percent from 5,439.26 a week earlier. Only Wednesday closed higher. Thursday was the week’s worst session, with the index falling 3.49 percent to 5,098.06 on Rp1.52 trillion of foreign net selling. On Friday the index dipped below 5,000 intraday, touching 4,989, before recovering; 523 stocks fell against 187 that rose.

One signal eased: Friday’s foreign net selling shrank to Rp172.43 billion, from Rp1.52 trillion on Thursday. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Rp206.5 billion) and Telkom Indonesia (Rp119.5 billion) were Friday’s biggest foreign sells, while GoTo was the top foreign buy. Morning-session foreign buying faded into the close, so the easing is not yet a reversal.

The rupiah traded around 18,100–18,150 per US dollar on Friday, roughly flat on the day but down for a third straight week. Bank Indonesia says it is intervening through spot, non-deliverable forward and domestic non-deliverable forward transactions and secondary government-bond purchases. The 10-year government bond yield eased to 7.643 percent on Thursday from 7.706 percent on Wednesday, its highest since May 2020.

The overhang is Morgan Stanley Capital International’s consultation on moving Indonesia from Emerging Market to Standalone status, with feedback open until 30 April 2027 and a decision due by 30 June 2027. From Monday, 2 November, about 80 high-shareholding-concentration stocks, roughly 18 percent of index weight, drop out of the IHSG calculation, so index levels will no longer be comparable with before. Domestic credit stress stayed visible: PEFINDO cut PT Pembangunan Perumahan to idD after a Rp17.06 billion coupon went unpaid past its remedial period.

In the United States, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent on Thursday on Alphabet, which dropped more than 12 percent in its worst day ever after reporting negative free cash flow, then fell a further 2.86 percent on Friday to 25,437. The S&P 500 lost 1.82 percent and the Dow 1.09 percent. Friday’s trigger was Intel, down 28.6 percent in its worst day since 1974 on weak fourth-quarter guidance, and Amazon, down 1.4 percent after a third-quarter miss and heavy AI spending. Nvidia fell 4.2 percent, AMD 10.9 percent and Qualcomm 11.1 percent. The Nasdaq ended October down 5.3 percent, its worst month since March 2025, and 7.8 percent below its 6 October record close. The selling is a repricing of the AI trade rather than a broad earnings collapse: 82 percent of S&P 500 companies that had reported beat estimates. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.94 percent as investors sought safety. Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 after a hack of more than $6 billion at Binance, while oil rose about 2 percent ahead of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting.

On policy, the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00 percent in a 10–2 vote, with December hike odds easing to around 75–80 percent. US third-quarter GDP beat expectations at 3.4 percent annualised, while September personal consumption expenditures inflation ran 3.6 percent, with core at 3.1 percent. The European Central Bank held rates, and the Bank of Japan held at 1.25 percent but declared its 2 percent inflation goal reached, keeping a December hike in play.

The week ahead is event-heavy: Indonesia releases manufacturing PMI, September trade data and October inflation on Monday, third-quarter GDP on Thursday, and foreign-exchange reserves on Friday. US midterm elections fall on Tuesday, the Bank of England decides rates on Thursday, and US October payrolls land on Friday. Apple reports on Monday, followed by AMD and Qualcomm. Analysts put IHSG support at 4,969–4,907 and resistance at 5,246–5,326